The All-in Overbet

During a $20 rebuy tournament last night, a debate came up about pushing all-in with a sizeable stack pre-flop when the blinds and antes were small enough that the player in question wasn’t considered truly short stacked.  There were actually three moments of said player pushing all-in pre-flop (or not doing so when the situation actually called for it) with so much at stake and so little to win that I wanted to discuss each one in detail.

The first instance of pushing his stack was with the blinds at 50-100, no antes, and the rebuys were still available.  He had $4,000 in chips (which we started with $7,500) and with the two blinds and a limper already in the pot ($250) he shoved it all in.  He never showed the hand but it was eventually explained that he had something close to K-J suited.  Risking $4,000 to win $250, even with rebuys still available, isn’t a good bet in my opinion.  Everyone ended up folding and he did win the pot, but he could have accomplished the same goal and risked far less money had it resulted in somebody actually waking up with a hand worth calling.

The second moment of discussion took place during the same blind level, with rebuys still an option.  The player in question still had approximately $4,000 in chips and after the guy in the big blind tried to raise out of position, this player folded pocket twos without ever putting any money in the pot.  It went around to the big blind, who then did raise it to $350.  With the ability to still rebuy and the knowledge that the big blind is going to raise, I think calling the $100, letting it get around to the big blind to raise it another $250 and then making a move then is the smarter play.

The outcome works in your favor by playing it deceitfully.  If you make the re-raise of either an all-in, which I wouldn’t do, or bumping it anywhere from $800-1,200 you now get a few options to win the hand.  You could either win it right there with everyone folding to your re-raise or win it with a bet (as long as you haven’t gone all in) on the flop whether you hit or not.  Even being called for an all-in at some point isn’t the worst thing in the world as you could win the hand at a showdown or rebuy and start with a fresh $7,500 should you lose,

By limping with the first bet, knowing it is going to be raised behind you, and then making a re-raise after the big blind raises, you are winning at minimum $550 (small blind called the $100, big blind’s $350, and your $100).  Playing the hand this way makes more sense if you are trying to either double up or rebuy as fast as possible.

The final situation was when the player held A-10 offsuit and pushed all in pre-flop for $3,600.  Blinds at that point were $100-200 with a $25 ante and the rebuy period was over.  Losing would knock him out of the tournament.  With $3,600 in chips, in my opinion, it is too early to push everything pre-flop without a raise ahead of you.  It would take a really bad player or somebody with so many chips that losing $3,600 was meaningless to make a call with something worse than A-10 when there is only $400 in the pot prior to the all-in raise.

With the big blind at $200, you can make a raise of $600-800 and if you get a caller or two then you still have $2,800-3,000 in chips if you lose the hand and not put any more money in.  Yes, after that you would need to start thinking about being in all-in mode, but with $3,600 I believe it is simply too much to lose and too little to win for an all-in pre-flop raise.  Maybe if rebuys are still going on that raise would be okay, but when you are risking your tournament life on A-10 offsuit and the money out in the pot would only increase your stack by 11 percent it doesn’t make sense to me.

I guess what all this boils down to is risk versus reward.  Is the money you are risking worth as much as what the reward is?  To me, his decisions to push all in with so much money at stake and so little to win were poor financial decisions at the poker table.  But in all honesty, what do I know.  Small stakes rebuy tournaments are my Achilles heel right now.  Maybe my thinking is completely wrong and that is why I rarely finish in the money at these things.

WinStar, Weatherford, Granbury (One Loss, Two Wins)

In 2013 I've played cards three times, once at WinStar, again in Weatherford, and finally in Granbury.  The Granbury game is new for me, but it consists of mostly the same people as Weatherford on a smaller scale.

I lost $300 at WinStar in my first game.  I won $220 in Weatherford.  I won $350 in Granbury.  All of this has resulted in starting off 2013 with a profit of $270.

The one hand worth discussing thus far is one I folded on the flop and I have no idea if I made a good fold or not.  I think it was a smart fold, but not sure if it was the correct one.  I started with 5-3 of clubs. I was the small blind and completed my bet after two other players called for $2.  The big blind checked and the flop came out J-5-3 with two diamonds and a spade.

With bottom two pair, I led out for $10 into an $8 pot.  This was an overbet, but I didn't want those with a flush draw to see a $6 or $8 bet and call despite the odds to not do so.  Making a double digit bet would run away flush draws.

The big blind folded, one player called, and the last player raised it to $40 total.  It was now $30 more to me.  I believed I was in the lead at this point, however, after contemplating the situation I opted to fold.  The following are my reasons:
1. The player who raised had about $400 in front of him and I had a little more.  If things went past the flop it was likely going to be a very expensive hand and I wouldn't be sure I had the best hand by the end unless I hit another five or three.  I could raise another $60-90 and possibly win it right there, but if he called or raised I would have to shut things down at that point and not feel good to any future bets.
2. Being the small blind, I would be in poor position for the rest of the hand.
3. I had another player behind me who could be slow-playing something big or would call on a flush draw if I called and then I'm still going up against the draw that I was trying to avoid.

All this combined made me decide to fold and wait for a safer spot to gamble my money.  The player behind me also folded and the turn and river were shown to be a four and two.  This meant an ace or six had a straight.  I felt I would have not had the best hand by the end and folding was the safer play.

You might disagree with my play, but bottom two pair in that situation was good, not great.  Oh well.  I still ended up with $450 in front of me.  After starting with only $100, my profit for the night was $350 and my beginning in Granbury has started off well.