Weatherford (June 16)

The greatest part of no-limit hold’em, and the equally most frustrating aspect, is how your night can completely change with the results of a single hand.  Winning a giant pot or getting sucked out on the river could make the difference in an otherwise uneventful and boring session of poker.  This element of the game was a key component to my night of cards in Weatherford this past weekend.  I played for nine hours and other than the good company of friends around me, it was an utterly tedious night of poker minus one single hand that led to a profitable game.

Throughout the night I hovered between even and down $50.  I did re-buy once, which it was really more like an add-on because when I lost half of my initial $100, I bought in for another $100 to keep up with the rest of the players at the table and not be on a short stack.  After probably seven hours of play I finally hit a big hand. I had pocket fives and hit a third five on the flop.

What gave the hand such drama was that the three flop cards were all clubs.  It came out Q-8-5.  The hand was raised to $7 pre-flop and with five of us seeing the flop the first guy to bet was the big blind.  Prior to realizing he was the big blind he was going to fold.  But then he put his $2 out, which was followed by the extra $5 after four players also had put their money in.  So, wanting to fold but then deciding to pay another $5 after $30 was already in the pot, he led out with a $50 bet on the flop.  Knowing all of this information, the original raiser went all in for about $250.  I was next to act and had roughly $180.

It doesn’t really matter what I think everybody has here, because with what I am holding and the possibility of improving it I am going to make the call.  But let’s break down the thought process for fun.

The guy in the big blind likely doesn’t have me beat, but if he does it is with a baby flush no higher than with a seven in his hand.  I probably would have put him on two pair or a pair with a high flush draw.  His bet is one that he wants to just win the hand right now, but if he is called he is willing to go the distance with it.

The second player, who raised it pre-flop, is the one that scares me the most.  He doesn’t have the nut flush because if he did he would simply call hoping to get someone else behind him to come along for the ride, but he has the most potential to be the best hand at the end.  My thinking is he has one of three types of hands.  A higher set than me (improbable but possible so I won’t rule it out), a high flush with K-Q or Q-J of clubs and he wants anyone with the ace to not pay the high cost of drawing for a fourth club, or a pair with the nut flush draw.

No matter what these two guys have and even risking what could happen from the two players who act after me, I am still sending all my chips to the middle.  I had less money than the original raiser who went all in, so therefore it is simply a call on my part.

The two other players folded and it was back on the big blind.  He thought for a long time and eventually showed his hand, top two pair with Q-8, while contemplating his option.  By him showing a queen and an eight I no longer feared the other player having a higher set.  The odds were just too slim he would have the last two queens or eights to give him a better hand.  The big blind finally elected to fold.

I flipped up my hand and my opponent showed A-Q with the ace being a club.  This gave him two chances to hit a club.  It didn’t come and I more than doubled up.

There is a second hand worth discussing, but I wasn’t involved.  With three players in the hand that had been raised prior to the flop, the first two checked a board of J-9-2 with two hearts.  The third player, who made the pre-flop raise, has aces, one being a heart.  He bet $20 and was met with a check-raise from the first player, who made it $60 to go.  The second guy, an intensely tight player who is only starting to open up his bluffing game but isn’t one to make calls to set up a bluff down the road, called the $60.

It is now back to the guy with aces, who has to decide what to do here.  There is approximately $160 in the pot and it is $40 to call.

In my opinion, you have to either fold or raise at this point.  Calling is the worst possible option because it gives you absolutely no information about what the other two are holding.  Suppose you call the $40 and after the turn doesn’t present an ace, what amount are you willing to call now when somebody bets?  If the turn is a heart you at least have a flush to draw for, but the price has to be right to pay for that.  If it isn’t a heart then do you give up at this point, so long as they don’t bet a measly amount?  You just can’t know for sure if you have the best hand by calling the check-raise on the flop.

If you think you are beat on the flop, which is a real possibility since the tight player has called a check-raise, then folding is the correct move.  If you think you are still in the lead, make a raise on the flop and if you get called or re-raised by one or both players then you know where you stand and you can get away from it.  Calling is the biggest mistake in my opinion.

Also by raising on the flop, should you get called then it is likely your opponent(s) will check to you on the turn.  That will give you a chance to take a free card and see the river at no cost if you don’t improve or the board makes it obviously clear you are now beat, which makes your re-raise on the flop essential become a turn bet.  It sort of evens out and you are still in control of the hand.

The player eventually folded what was the best hand.  One player held A-J (top pair, top kicker) and another had a pocket pair of tens.  While the outcome resulted in a mistake made by the guy holding aces, I think it was still correct in that particular situation.  Being able to lay down aces is something good players do.  Sometimes it is going to be the wrong decision, but having the capability to do so will save you money in the long run.  In fact, with no scientific statistics to back this claim up, I dare say those who fold aces will do so with it being the correct decision more often than it is the incorrect one.

For my nine hours of play and $260 profit, I was able to log a $28.89 hourly average.  For the year, I have won $160 playing hold’em and $770 in the Weatherford game alone.  Casinos have not been good to me this year.