Monday, February 20, 2017

Am I Too Amateurish To Understand This Play?

Last week I was involved in a hand that I felt was a bit reckless(I folded pre-flop, but was still at the table when the events to be transcribed on this blog happened), but after contemplating it and considering it from other angles I'm starting to question whether it was a brilliant play and I'm just not a good enough player to recognize its genius.

We were playing a tournament and there were seven players at the table.  The blinds were $300-600.  After the blinds posted and the cards were dealt, the player under the gun called for $600.  The next player raised it to $1,800.  The player to the immediate left of the raiser called the $1,800.  I then folded and the player on my left (who was dealing) called the $1,800.

This gets the action back to the small blind and there is currently $6,900 in the pot.  The small blind announces a re-raise for $6,000 more, making the total bet $7,800.  This puts $14,400 in the pot.  The big blind immediately folded.  So now action is back on the player under the gun who limped for $600.

Unless he is trying to be really sneaky with aces or kings by limping and waiting for an aggressive player behind him to raise it so he can do a re-raise, it is pretty obvious he is folding.  While he took his time to do so, he did eventually fold.

With $14,400 in the pot, it is now up to three players to call for $6,000,  re-raise an additional $6,000 or more, or fold.  The original raiser thought for about two minutes and eventually folded.  The player to my right also thought for about an additional minute and folded.  Both stated that had they been last to act and not had to worry about the players behind them they would have called.  The dealer then made a quick fold.

So the re-raise from the small blind was a profitable play with little stress as nobody called.  Without revealing the hands just yet, I'm curious what kind of hand you would need to make the play that the small blind made.  Obviously if you are holding aces, kings, queens, and possibly A-K, then that re-raise is in the wheelhouse of most poker players.  But past that, you are getting into a deeper level of hold'em than the ABC's of poker that many game theory books profess.  On the surface, making a re-raise into five players, three of which have shown initial strength, requires a premium hand.  However, now that I've thought things through a little longer I am starting to wonder whether making a squeeze play wouldn't be beneficial with dang near any decent hand.

The reason I've had this change of heart is because you really only have to get past the initial raiser to probably win the hand.  Let me explain a little further.  When the small blind made his re-raise to $7,800, he had the big blind (who is likely folding as they have any two random cards and the likelihood of lucking into a top quality hand at this moment is pretty slim) and the under-the-gun limper (who, again, likely was wanting to see a cheap flop and didn't take his position into mind when calling), who both were likely folding for the reasons explained previously in this sentence.  Now we get to the initial raiser.

I don't remember exactly what the chip counts were, but let's assume that everyone is near the same amount and the $6,000 re-raise wouldn't put anyone all in.  It would be a large dent to your tournament livelihood, but if you call and fold on the flop there is still enough in your stack to survive.  You'll have to be pickier with hand selection, but it isn't completely crippling.

Unless the original raiser has a premium, top-tier hand, with two players behind he probably isn't calling the $6,000.  He has to assume somebody has him beat of the three players remaining and will likely fold.  And then you get to the two players who simply called the $1,800 raise.  They can't have hands they are particularly in love with because they would likely have re-raised themselves following the initial $1,800 raise.

So from the perspective of the small blind, you really only have to avoid one of about three or four hands from the initial raiser to make this play profitable.  And if you do happen to run into a really big hand from the initial raiser, he will either get cute and smooth call, allowing you to possibly hit a big hand, or put in a third raise and let you know immediately where you stand.

Therefore, you don't necessarily need a big hand to make this play.  It can be profitable by just showing great strength and avoiding a big hand from the initial raiser.  No one else has shown that they are willing to put a ton of chips in the pot with their medium-strength hands.

I've talked myself into this squeeze play being well-executed and I don't utilize that strategy enough in my own play.

For those interested in results, the small blind made his re-raise with pocket nines.  The under-the-gun player had something like A-10 offsuit.  The initial raiser had pocket tens.  The player to the left of the initial raiser had A-K offsuit.  And the dealer was just hoping for an $1,800 flop with J-9 suited.

The nines weren't in a great spot had he simply called the raise and the pocket tens would have tripped up on the flop.  Well done squeeze play.  Well done.

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