A situation came up last night at my weekly poker game that still has me curious as to whether I made the correct play or not. If you go by results only, then no, I made a poor decision that cost me about $250. Yet, in the moment I felt it was the correct decision, despite being told by a better player whom I respect that I made an incorrect decision.
Here are the details. We are seven-handed and alternating between hold'em and Omaha (with the dealer choosing the game and whether it is high only or high-low). I am seated in the big blind with $315 in front of me and the game is Omaha high-low with blinds of $1-2 and it is $5 to come in. I am dealt As-Qs-8c-3h. The two players after me fold and the guy in the highjack seat raises to $15 (with a starting stack of $450). The cutoff and button both call (starting stacks are $775 and $625, respectively). The small blind folds and I call. There is $61 in the pot.
The flop comes 9s-5d-3s. I am first to act and have bottom pair, a nut-flush draw, and only three cards to a low. I feel I have two options and that is to either make a blocking bet and hope it doesn't get raised or check and see what it is going to cost me to hang around for the flush draw. Being first to act with three players behind me, one of which raised pre-flop, I didn't think I wanted to put any unnecessary money in the pot and a blocking bet of $20-30 wouldn't accomplish much. I would either be raised by the original raiser or the other two players who had big chip stacks would put some pressure on me with sizable raises sniffing out my weakness. I elected to check.
The original raiser also checked sending action to the cutoff. Whether being the chip leader influenced his decision or not, he led out for a bet of $50, which is pretty normal for this guy as he likes to make big bets and put opponents to the test for large amounts of money (side story: on the final hand of the night the same guy made an all-in flop bet of $300 into a pot of about $100; that's just his style of play and he usually is either the big winner or big loser for the night).
The button thought for well over a minute about what he wanted to do and he decided to call the $50. With $161 in the pot and a player behind me who initially raised pre-flop and checked the flop, it is $50 to me to call with my bottom pair, nut flush draw, and low hand that needs runner-runner to qualify (eight or lower that doesn't match what is already out there). At this point I have $300 left. I have to figure even if I do ever make it to the low it likely isn't going to be good unless the turn or river is a two. So that means the best-case scenario I can hope for is I improve on my pair of threes (by hitting another three) or hit a spade for the nut flush to win the entire pot if a low doesn't qualify. The worst-case scenario with still winning money is the same as best-case scenario but a low does qualify and I win half the pot (I just can't realistically think that I will win the low even with a two coming on the turn/river and another low card coming as well; remember, I need runner-runner low cards to qualify).
Although I am still learning how to play Omaha, I have figured out rather quickly that people don't slow play big hands, but they also bet draws pretty frequently as well since you have four cards in your hand to work with and there are so many possibilities to hit something for a big hand. It is not unusual for two pair to be a horrible winning hand and it normally takes a straight or better to win. With that being said, I've frequently seen people get all the money in with one player having a flush draw and another having a set (which is quite frequent to see with so many players holding so many cards).
After rambling on for this long, I think you can tell that I am trying to convince all my readers that calling or raising is a bold play here with such slim odds to win the full pot and risking so much to win half usually isn't a winning strategy in the long term. I elected to fold my hand since I was worried that even if I hit a spade for the nut flush I would likely still have to avoid the board pairing to give someone a full house, since with that big of a bet and call I couldn't fathom one of the two players to have acted already not having a set.
Before I proceed with what happened after that I would like you to reflect on whether my fold was incorrect, correct, horrible, or a pretty standard fold that shouldn't have even made it on this website for discussion.
Okay, have you berated me enough? Let's move on.
The original raiser decided to implement the check-raise and he made it $175 total. The cutoff and button both thought for a bit and decided to call. There is now $586 in the pot.
It should be noted, had I decided to call the $50 I probably would have been forced to go the distance with it because that would have meant there was $636 in the pot and it was $125 to me to call and if I do call I would have been left with $125 behind. In all likelihood, if I called the $50 I probably would have moved all in after the pre-flop raiser's check-raise. What reason would I have to hang on to the final $125? If the other three players are willing to put in nearly $200 each at this point, what is another $125 to win a giant pot (or at least half of it)?
The turn was the seven of spades, creating a board of 9s-5d-3s-7s. I have now completed my nut flush and am one step closer to making a low hand (except I have folded and cannot win anything). Interestingly, the original pre-flop raiser who check-raised the flop decides to check the turn. Normally I would think he is scared of the flush and was trying to push people out of drawing to the spade on the flop with something like a set or top two pair, but if you were going to price people out of drawing, why check the flop and risk it going check-check behind you for a free card or allowing the players to build a bigger pot so that when you do make your check-raise you have enticed more action by building a bigger pot and giving them the idea that they need to defend the money they have already put out there with their flop bet? So, with that in mind I figured he had hit a big hand and was trying to show weakness so that he could string his opponents along for a little longer, which really doesn't make a ton of sense either because he only has $260 left and going all in with his hand is likely going to get called by at least one player, if not both. That sort of makes me now question the line of thinking I have had up to this point.
So the pre-flop raiser/flop check-raiser checks the turn and the cutoff (who, remember, is chip leader) goes all in for his remaining $585. The cutoff doesn't take too long to call for his remaining $435. There is now $1,456 in the pot (really it is $1,606, but $150 of the chip leaders bet is coming back since he has everyone covered). I am absolutely positive one of them has the nut low and I assume the other has at least a set, maybe a straight, and possibly the king-high flush (since I'm the dumb-dumb who folded the nut flush).
With that much money in the pot and only $260 left, I'm not sure what the pre-flop raiser was thinking, but he folds. I understand that there are times when if you think you are beat you should fold and save your money, but there are also times when you are getting five-and-a-half-to-one odds on your money to win a huge pot and you should take a risk. He had already risked nearly half his starting stack and if he had tried to aggressively push players out of the pot with nothing but a bluff on the flop then it was a poor decision as both players had already shown that they were pretty happy with their hands when they made a pot-sized bet and call.
So the action is done and we have a river to come. It is the king of clubs. The pre-flop raiser who just folded now throws a fit (which I don't understand and you won't either when I reveal his hand).
The board is 9s-5d-3s-7s-Kc and the two players remaining flip their cards. The chip leader shows Ah-10d-8c-2d for a nut low and nothing for a high. The button players shows Ac-Jc-9h-2h. This gives him a tying hand for the low and a winning high hand of a pair of nines. The pre-flop raiser shows Ks-Kd and said one of his other two cards was a spade giving him the second-nut flush. So if he had the flush on the turn, why did a third king matter? Baffling!
Ultimately I would have won half the pot with my nut flush, which would have resulted in turning my $315 stack into a $565 stack. You might say I was too timid in my play and should have taken a chance with the nut flush, but I just couldn't fathom with such a big bet and a call on the flop that I wasn't drawing to a flush that could end up being bested by a boat if the board paired anything, and that's assuming I even get there with a third spade.
I'm curious to know what others think of this because so far I have only the opinion of one other player and he said I should have called, which would have committed me to everything once the check-raise, call, call happened on the flop. Had I called the $50 bet and then re-raised all in after the pre-flop raiser made his check-raise I likely would have gotten him to come along for the extra $125, which would have increased my winning half to $630.
Despite folding this monster hand, I did end up winning for the night. I took home a profit of $350 ($400 of which came from the cash game). Last night's win puts me back in the black for the year and I am on pace to reach some of my financial goals for 2017.
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